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60 .

Exploratory Workshop on the Social Impacts of Robotics

Daiwa Securities America Inc.

Page -34-

Machida concludes his overview asserting that the “intelligent robot is representative of the leading edge of technology products” and that “the growth of the industrial robot industry will bear eloquent testi- mony to our strong international competitiveness even in the area of state-of-the-art technology”. These views reflect the Japanese attitude of placing major stress on the export of intelligent robots as proof of Japan’s creativity.

Returning to the estimated demand forecast, the most substantial growth through the eighties will be the intelligent robot. Playback and NC robots will grow at an accelerating rate in the first half of the decade, but should slow down in the second half. Variable

sequence robots will also grow significantly in the first five

level

off

in

the

second

five

years.

The

manual

manipulators

years but and fixed

sequence machines show growth decline significantly in value

but their total

terms.

Thus,

in

share 1974,

of output will the sophisticated

robots

constituted

and in

1990, 45%.

10.

8%

of

total

value;

in

1980

26.

4%,

in

1985,

41%,

In terms of production, the two processes certain to grow through- out the decade will be assembly and inspection and measurement, probably

at a rate of loading will

almost 40% annually. continue to grow but

Spot at a

welding, arc decelerating

welding, and machine rate. Spray painting

should maintain which robots are

continuous growth. produced have been

In 1985 the estimated as

production process for follows (in % of value).

Assembly

21. 7%

Machine Tool Process 13.1

Arc Welding Inspection Spot Welding Spray Painting Molding

10.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 3.3

Others

28.9

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8)

How will the U.S. and Japan compare in the future? Using the U.S. definition of robots the following table- includes the latest estimates.

TABLE 15

U.S. -Japan Comparison Industrial Robots (U. S. Definition)

1980

1,269

3,200

100.5

180

1985

5,195

31,900

441.2

2,150

1990

21,575

57,450

1,884.0

4,450

Value (million $)

U.S.

Japan

U.S .

Units

Japan

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