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App. B—Commissioned Background Papers . 81

is hard to produce is

for

a

profit,

at,

(or

goods and services below) the current

that

can be

market

price.

SO 1 d

Nevertheless, the vanced automation

average

citizen is

would

necessarily

unconvinced that ad- put increased spending

power into his or her pocketbook,

robots have their income?

most

In

of the jobs,

order

for

most

The question is -- If the how will average people get people to be convinced that

robots will be

are

going

to

bring more benefits than problems it

necessary

to

demonstrate

that

a

variety

of

alterna-

tive

income

producing

occupations will be created

the void left by those jobs which

Fortunately,

this

is

not

difficult

are taken to do.

over

by

to fill robots.

Perhaps, the most obvious source of new jobs is in

the

in-

dustries

which

must

be

created

robot tured

based economy.

Certainly if

in

large

enough

quantities

in order to convert to a robots are to be manufac- to make a significant im-

pact on the existing industrial

manufacturing,

sales,

and

service

system, entirely industries will

new robot emerge and

millions of exciting new jobs will be

created.

industrial robot more by the time

costs it is

from $30,000 to $80,000 installed and operating.

typical and sometimes A

This

means

that every robot of work somewhere presently growing

installed creates from 2 to 4 person-years

in

the

at

about

economy. 35% per

The robot market is year, which means it dou–

bles about every 3 years.

As long as this growth rate

tinues, as fast

robot production will add jobs to the as robot installation takes them away.

economy

con- about

It will be many years, perhaps many

can

design,

manufacture

market,

decades, install,

before program,

robots and

repair themselves with little or no human intervention.

In

the meantime, the produce an enormous

manufacture and servicing of robots will demand for mechanical engineers, techni–

cians,

computer

programmers

electronic

designers

robot

in-

stallation and repair persons.

New robot companies

quire

secretaries,

sales

persons,

accountants,

and

will re- business

managers. eventually

It seems employ

likely

that

at

least

as

the many

robot people

industry

will

as the

computer

and

automobile

industries

do

today.

Converting the world’s existing industrial plants from manu-

al to robot much as the

labor total

will require many existing stock of

decades and will cost as

industrial

wealth.

This

like

the

United States

which

has a strong

technological

base,

the

world market in

robots

could easily

create twice

is a

Herculean

task which

will provide

employment

to mil–

lions

of workers

for several

generations.

For a

country

bor.

Needless to say,

the export of

robot

systems

(as well

as

products

made

by

them)

could

have

a strong

positive

as

many

jobs in robot production as were lost to robot la-

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