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PRIVATISING NATIONAL OIL COMPANIES: ASSESSING THE IMPACT ON FIRM PERFORMANCE - page 17 / 30

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Post

Year

Post*Year

OilPrice

0.0313

0.0119

-0.0096

0.0009

(0.0184)

(0.0032)

(0.0041)

(0.0004)

1.70*

3.66***

-2.34**

2.28**

0.0358

0.0133

-0.0114

0.0008

(0.0188)

(0.0031)

(0.0040)

(0.0003)

1.91*

4.31***

-2.85***

3.15***

0.2015

0.0607

-0.0463

-0.0004

(0.1452)

(0.0222)

(0.0330)

(0.0024)

1.39

2.74***

-1.40

-0.15

-0.3516

-0.0263

0.0755

0.0022

(0.2358)

(0.0277)

(0.0545)

(0.0054)

-1.49

-0.95

1.38

0.41

-0.0469

0.0313

0.0610

0.0160

(0.5319)

(0.0406)

(0.1030)

(0.0041)

-0.09

0.77

0.59

3.94***

0.0317

0.0478

0.0025

-0.0007

(0.1288)

(0.0101)

(0.0231)

(0.0030)

0.25

4.73***

0.11

-0.24

-0.1680

-0.0169

0.0337

0.0028

(0.1224)

(0.0173)

(0.0276)

(0.0015)

-1.37

-0.98

1.22

1.79*

-0.2210

-0.0780

0.0432

-0.0067

(0.1320)

(0.0212)

(0.0293)

(0.0018)

-1.67*

-3.68***

1.47

-3.76***

-0.1793

-0.0340

0.0312

-0.0004

(0.1959)

(0.0364)

(0.0479)

(0.0024)

-0.92

-0.93

0.65

-0.16

0.0100

0.0179

0.0057

-0.0026

(0.1115)

(0.0245)

(0.0283)

(0.0018)

0.09

0.73

0.20

-1.43

177

0.2560

0.6%

1.3%

-0.1%

160

0.1998

4.4%

7.0%

2.0%

92

0.0401

0.3%

-2.4%

3.0%

183

0.3494

6.6%

2.5%

10.9%

179

0.4019

5.8%

5.5%

6.2%

157

0.0548

-0.5%

-1.6%

0.5%

157

0.5120

-6.9%

-7.6%

-6.2%

173

0.0683

-2.7%

-3.4%

-2.1%

181

0.0948

2.6%

1.8%

3.4%

Notes: Based on fixed-effects model with cluster-robust error terms. Reported are coefficients, standard errors (in parentheses) and t- statistics. Annual percentage point changes (RoS, RoA, D/E, Div/Income) and compound annual growth rates (all other metrics) are calculated assuming the average of the respective fixed unit effects and a constant real-terms oil price of US$50/barrel

No. of

R-squ.

Annual PP change / CAGR

obs.

(within)

Full period

Y1-4

Y5-7

174

0.2020

0.6%

1.2%

0.0%

Dividends / net income

Debt / equity

Employment / assets

Employment (rel.)

Physical output

Capex

Production costs

Output per employee

Return on assets

Table 3: Regression results for performance changes (all initial SIPs)

Return on sales

Independent variables

Table 4: Regression results for performance changes (initial SIPs post 1988)

Return on sales

  • -

    Excl. control group

  • -

    Incl. control group

Return on assets

  • -

    Excl. control group

  • -

    Incl. control group

Output per employee

  • -

    Excl. control group

  • -

    Incl. control group

Physical output

  • -

    Excl. control group

  • -

    Incl. control group

Employment (rel.)

  • -

    Excl. control group

  • -

    Incl. control group

Employment / assets

  • -

    Excl. control group

  • -

    Incl. control group

0.0317 1.54 0.0248 1.09

0.0141 3.95*** 0.0143 4.12***

-0.0102 -2.28** -0.0090 -1.84*

0.0004 0.55 -0.0003 -0.45

- - 0.4602 1.70

0.0358 1.67 0.0333 1.61

0.0144 4.24*** 0.0145 4.17***

-0.0118 -2.79** -0.0113 -2.68**

0.0007 1.50 0.0002 0.35

- - 0.1982 1.71

0.2231 1.31 0.2152 1.23

0.0534 2.18** 0.0573 2.14**

-0.0435 -1.19 -0.0426 -1.15

-0.0017 -0.41 -0.0022 -0.49

- - -6.7379 -1.31

0.1282 1.02 0.1441 0.98

0.0371 3.08*** 0.0502 2.44**

-0.0166 -0.86 -0.0217 -0.89

0.0026 0.69 0.0018 0.42

- - -0.0003 -1.37

-0.1931 -1.35 -0.1992 -1.30

-0.0151 -0.77 -0.0161 -0.64

0.0353 1.11 0.0366 1.07

0.0029 1.05 0.0030 0.97

- - 0.0164 0.03

-0.2291 -1.57 -0.2253 -1.47

-0.0772 -3.17*** -0.0594 -2.08**

0.0476 1.50 0.0449 1.35

-0.0096 -4.22*** -0.0092 -4.02***

- - 0.1469 0.58

obs

(within)

Full period

Y1-4

Y5-7

141

0.2268

0.8%

1.4%

0.1%

139

0.2525

0.8%

1.4%

0.2%

146

0.2589

0.7%

1.4%

-0.1%

144

0.2684

0.7%

1.4%

-0.1%

132

0.1936

4.5%

6.3%

2.7%

129

0.1964

4.9%

6.8%

3.0%

144

0.3679

3.8%

3.8%

3.8%

142

0.3889

4.8%

5.3%

4.3%

133

0.0377

-0.6%

-1.4%

0.3%

130

0.0376

-0.6%

-1.5%

0.3%

132

0.5316

-6.9%

-8.1%

-5.6%

129

0.5092

-5.0%

-6.3%

-3.7%

Annual PP change / CAGR

R-squ.

No. of

Control variables

OilPrice

CtrGrp

Indepe Post

ndent variables

Year

Post*Year

Notes: Based on reduced sample of initial SIPs post 1988 (23 out of 28 companies), for which period the control group data is available. Model specification excluding the control group is same as in Table 3. Annual PP changes/CAGR calculations assume the average performance metrics over the 20-year period for the control group.

17

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