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B [low], and C. These curves show the estimated annual clerk/carrier savings (in 1989 dollars) as a function of ZIP+4 usage for single-line OCRs and for multi-line OCRs with and without ZIP+4.

As discussed previously in the technical analysis, OTA concluded that the USPS estimate of 60 percent was pessimistic. OTA assumed that there was only a 5 percent chance that actual multi-line performance would be equal to or less than this low

estimate.

OTA concluded that a reasonable median estimate of

performance was 65

percent, with a 50-50 chance that actual performance reasonable high estimate was 75 percent, with performance would equal or exceed this level.

will

be above

a5

percent

or below, and that a chance that actual

The multi-line OCR savings curves associated with low (60 percent), median (65

percent), and high (75 percent) performance are shown in figure 8. OTA used the USPS multi-line OCR savings curve as the low performance curve (marked as Alt. B (low) in figure 8), and developed new savings curves for median and high multi-line OCR performance (marked as Alt. B [median] and Alt B. [high], respectively, in figure 8). The x-intercepts of the three multi-line curves (savings at O percent ZIP+4 usage) correspond to about 67, 73, and 83 percent of the single-line OCR savings at 90 percent ZIP+4 usage. Thus, based on this set of curves, at zero percent ZIP+4 usage the annual savings estimates are approximately $580 million, $635 million, and $720 million for the three multi-line OCR alternatives, as compared to about $230 million for the single-line OCR

alternative.

(Note:

The

savings

percentage

at

  • O

    percent

ZIP+4

for

Alt.

B

[low]

was

calculated by dividing $580 million, the multi-line savings at O percent ZIP+4 usage,

$870 million, the single-line

percent.

Then,

to

estimate

savings at 90 percent ZIP+4 usage equals approximately the multi-line savings percentage at 65 percent and

by 67 75

45

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