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In addition, even the concerns stated by USPS would appear to be moot for options

including subsequent not begin projections

an initial purchase of some or all of the Phase II single-line OCRs and

conversion to multi-line capability. Since actual conversion would for about 3 years, by that time it should be clear to what extent of ZIP+4 usage with a single-line OCR system are being met.

probably

USPS

National directory feasibility and cost.

OTA originally included the cost of

computerized national directories as a theory that national directories would OCRs. However, upon further analysis,

charge against multi-line OCR options, on the be necessary for effective use of multi-line OTA concluded that national directories, while

technically feasible, were not necessary, since and destination cities amounts to a de facto national directory has not yet been developed,

the use of local directories in the origin

national directory. In estimating costs would

addition, since a be very difficult.

As

a

result

of

these

factors,

the

cost

of

national

directories

was

removed

from

further

consideration. (The cost of local directories was, of course, reflected in the multi-line OCR purchase ‘price and single- to multi-line conversion price.)

estimates

of

Single/multi-line obsolescence date for becoming obsolete in

OCR Phase 1994

obsolescence. OTA originally included as an uncertainty the

II or

single-line OCR equipment (i. e.,

earlier).

However,

OTA

concluded

a 5 percent chance of that the single-line

OCRs could be upgraded, if necessary, to use new technologies and/or perform new

expanded functions.

Therefore, the equipment obsolescence

uncertainty.

All

equipment

was

assumed

to

remain

operational

date was excluded through 1998.

as

or an

Multi-line OCR procurement delay. OTA originally assumed a 2-year delay in OCR procurement if USPS switched from single-to multi-line OCRs. Upon further analysis. OTA concluded that a 3-year delay was more reasonable, based on best available

50

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