X hits on this document

310 views

0 shares

0 downloads

0 comments

66 / 122

engineering judgment and USPS experience with single-line OCR release-loan testing, assuming no change in USPS procurement-practices. USPS has likewise estimated a 3- year delay as more realistic, given the need to issue a new solicitation for release-loan testing of multi-line OCRs.

Results of Decision Analysis

Probabilistic cash flow models were developed for each option using the

assumptions and uncertainties project estimated yearly cash

discussed previously. flows, rate of return,

The models were then used to

and net present value for each

decision option. (See appendices cash flows for all options except interpolation. )

A and B for a options G and

detailed presentation

H,

which

were

of the models estimated

and by

The purpose of the modeling is to provide both absolute and comparative financial projections for each decision option. However, while the models generate numbers that appear to be very specific, the user of the results must understand that all projections

are and

subject to some uncertainties.

imprecision, But as long

especially in view of the large number of assumptions as these assumptions and uncertainties are treated

consistently,

the

results

should

provide

a

valid

basis

for

comparison

among

options.

Results of the decision analysis are presented below in the following order: rates of return, net present values, supplemental sensitivity analysis, and overall cash flows.

Rates of return.

The cash flow models were used to estimate internal rates of

return (ROIs) for each estimated on an incremental

option under each basis over option F

condition of uncertainty. (cancel), since OTA

The ROIs were assumed that under

51

Document info
Document views310
Page views310
Page last viewedSun Dec 04 08:40:18 UTC 2016
Pages122
Paragraphs3734
Words24057

Comments