engineering judgment and USPS experience with single-line OCR release-loan testing, assuming no change in USPS procurement-practices. USPS has likewise estimated a 3- year delay as more realistic, given the need to issue a new solicitation for release-loan testing of multi-line OCRs.
Results of Decision Analysis
Probabilistic cash flow models were developed for each option using the
assumptions and uncertainties project estimated yearly cash
discussed previously. flows, rate of return,
The models were then used to
and net present value for each
decision option. (See appendices cash flows for all options except interpolation. )
A and B for a options G and
of the models estimated
The purpose of the modeling is to provide both absolute and comparative financial projections for each decision option. However, while the models generate numbers that appear to be very specific, the user of the results must understand that all projections
subject to some uncertainties.
imprecision, But as long
especially in view of the large number of assumptions as these assumptions and uncertainties are treated
Results of the decision analysis are presented below in the following order: rates of return, net present values, supplemental sensitivity analysis, and overall cash flows.
Rates of return.
The cash flow models were used to estimate internal rates of
return (ROIs) for each estimated on an incremental
option under each basis over option F
condition of uncertainty. (cancel), since OTA
The ROIs were assumed that under