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Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Products

Richard D. Knabb NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

Tropical cyclone wind speed probability products became operational at the National Hurricane Center in 2006 for systems in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The new products include text and graphical versions that are updated with each forecast cycle for each active tropical cyclone. The probabilities are also being made available via the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). These products provide users with information regarding the chances of experiencing winds of tropical storm force and hurricane force at specific locations within the five-day forecast period. They also indicate the range of possibilities regarding when these wind conditions will begin at specific locations. The performance of these products during 2006 will be examined, including how they have been used by the media and emergency managers. Some minor changes to the products planned for 2007 will also be described.

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