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Advanced Hurricane Prediction at NCEP’s Environmental Model Center: The Operational Implementation of the HWRF

Naomi Surgi, HWRF Project Leader naomi.surgi@noaa.gov

Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP

The Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast system (HWRF)is scheduled for operational implementation at NCEP for this upcoming hurricane season. Under development for the past five years at EMC, the HWRF is being designed to address the intensity, structure, and rainfall forecast problem in addition to advancing wave and storm surge forecasts. Also continued advancements in track prediction will remain an important focus of this prediction system.

The HWRF is a coupled air-sea-land prediction model with a movable nested grid and advanced physics for high resolution. An advanced initialization of the hurricane core is being developed to make use of real-time airborne Doppler radar data from NOAA’s aircraft to initialize the three-dimensional storm scale structure. To address the totality of the hurricane forecast problems noted above, future versions of the HWRF will also include coupling to an advanced version of NCEP’s wave model, e.g. WAVEWATCH, which will eventually be coupled to a dynamic storm surge model. Additionally, the land surface component will also serve as input to hydrology and inundation models to address to hurricane-related inland flooding problem.

The initial configuration of the HWRF for the initial ‘07 implementation will be addressed in this presentation.

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