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Verification of the National Hurricane Center’s Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks

Daniel P. Brown and Jamie R. Rhome Daniel.P.Brown@noaa.gov National Hurricane Center Miami, FL

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) routinely issues Tropical Weather Outlooks (TWO) for both the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Ocean Basins. The TWOs are text-based products that “discuss areas of disturbed weather and the potential

for tropical cyclone development during somewhat standard descriptive phrases, the

the

next

48

hours.”

Through

the

use

NHC attempts to convey the relative threat

of of

tropical verified

cyclone formation for each system discussed in the using the NHC best-track data by assigning a low,

TWO. Those forecasts were medium, or high probability

of

development

during

the

2005

and

2006

hurricane

seasons.

The

results

demonstrate

that it is possible to distinguish the likelihood of tropical cyclone development using three-tiered approach. It is hoped that this work will lead to future possibilities of color-coded graphical version of the text NHC TWO.

a a

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