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A New Tropical Cyclone Formation Product: Operational Implementation for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific in 2006 and Extension to the Western N. Pacific in 2007

A n d r e a B . S c h u m a c h e r 1 , M a r k D e M a r i a 2 , J o h n A . K n a f f 2 , A n t o n i o I r v i n g 3 , N a n c y M e r c k l e (Presenter email address: schumacher@cira.colostate.edu) 3

1CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 2NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO 3NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD

The prediction of where and when tropical cyclones will form is a very difficult task and little objective guidance is available to operational tropical cyclone warning centers. In response to this need, a new Tropical Cyclone Formation Product (TCFP) has been developed. The TCFP uses the vertical shear of the wind and the sea surface temperature in combination with water vapor imagery from the NOAA GOES-East satellite to determine the probability that a tropical cyclone will form within the next 24 hours. It also provides the climatological probability of formation for a given region so that areas that are more favorable than normal for a storm to develop can be identified. In collaboration with the NESDIS Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution, the formation product became operational for the 2006 hurricane season. The formation probabilities are updated every six hours and are available at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html along with all the information that is used as input for the product. The dependent probabilities have been evaluated using the Brier Skill Score and the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) score, both of which indicate the TCFP to be skillful and an improvement upon climatological formation probabilities.

The current product domain covers the forecast area of responsibility of NHC and includes the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. A project is currently underway to extend this TCFP product to the Central and Western North Pacific basins and to provide a similar product to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Pacific Region WFO’s, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Collection of the necessary NCEP Global Forecasting System files and water vapor imagery from GOES-West, GOES-9 and MT-SAT has been completed and product development is underway, with an experimental version of the product expected to be running at CIRA by early 2007.

The views, opinions, and findings in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official NOAA and/or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.

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