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Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF

Charles R. Sampson, NRL Monterey, CA Buck.Sampson@nrlmry.navy.mil

Ann Schrader, SAIC. Monterey, CA schradera@saic.com

Contributors: Chris Sisko, James Franklin, James Gross and Colin MCadie (NHC), John Knaff and Mark Demaria (CIRA), Tim Marchok (GFDL), and James Goerss (NRL)

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) was developed by NRL and has been in use at the Joint Typhoon Center since 1987 and the NHC since 1990. Since this time, a concerted effort has been made to develop common data formats and functionality so that tropical cyclone information is easily shared among the operational forecast centers. As a result, ATCF has become a target platform for many NHC and JHT products. This project is designed to implement, test and evaluate JHT and NHC products intended for use in operations on ATCF. In addition, this work addresses NHC specific requirements levied on the ATCF developers at a yearly requirements meeting and throughout the season.

Major tasks for this project included:

  • 1)

    Evaluation of two wind radii CLIPER algorithms,

  • 2)

    Implementation of the Monte Carlo wind probabilities in ATCF,

  • 3)

    Implementation of the Goerss Probability Consensus Error (GPCE) in ATCF,

  • 4)

    Improvement of the satellite imagery overlay capability in ATCF,

  • 5)

    Development of intensity and wind radii objective best-track routines,

  • 6)

    Automation of tropical cyclone fix entry in the NHC ATCF, and

  • 7)

    Address NHC requirements.

All tasks have been addressed with some degree of success. Highlights of the work will be briefed. To address task (7), approximately 20 NHC requirements of varying difficulty were addressed for the 2005 season and another 15 for the 2006 season. Approximately 10 more will be addressed for the 2007 season. Changes to the ATCF are vetted through NHC personnel before they are accepted in operations. Highlights of 2006/2007 upgrades include a redesigned wind forecast dialog, an intensity consensus skill baseline, and an objective best track for intensity and wind radii.

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