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Year

Canadian exports to Mexico

Canadian imports from Mexico

Canadian trade balance

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

300.0 386.6 316.9 432.3 396.3 543.2 534.3 664.0 785.8 702.8 745.8

136.0 160.0 197.2 230.5 255.2 266.6 254.2 268.3 282.4 301.6 409.0

164.0 226.6 119.7 201.8 141.1 276.6 280.1 395.7 503.4 401.2 336.8

Sources: SECOFI, Mexico’s Ministry of Economy, 2003–04, Sistema de In- formación Empresarial Mexicano, www.secofi-siem.gob.mx/portalsiem (ac- cessed in June 2003); Statistics Canada, Agriculture Economics Statistics, 2004; and Canadian Embassy in Mexico City.

Table 5.1

Canadian agricultural trade with Mexico, 1993–2003 (millions of US dollars)

5 percentage points. During the post-NAFTA era, Mexico’s trade ratio has increased about 18 percentage points (IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook 2004), indicating potential GDP gains of about 9 percentage points. Since agriculture contributed only 4 percent of Mexican GDP in 2003 (World Bank World Development Report 2005), it seems fairly certain that national gains to Mexico from trade liberalization will ultimately swamp income losses in the agricultural sector.

Nevertheless, the adjustment costs are both real and painful, particu- larly to affected farms and communities. At market prices, value added by Mexican agriculture dropped from around $32 billion in 1993 to around $25 billion in 2003 (World Bank’s World Development Report 1995 and 2005). Over the same period, the number of Mexicans employed in rural agriculture declined from 8.1 million to 6.8 million. 10

10. As an illustration of the adjustment burden, Mexican hog farms have attracted consid- erable notice. See, for example, Ginger Thompson, “NAFTA to Open Floodgates, Engulfing Rural Mexico,” New York Times, December 19, 2002. According to an advocacy calculation by the Mexico Hog Farmers Association, a third of the 18,000 swine producers in Mexico will be forced out of business by the elimination of tariffs in January 2003. While no estimates have been published since the tariffs were removed, US pork and live swine exports to Mex- ico have soared. In response, Mexico has applied antidumping (AD) duties on US live swine exports and initiated AD investigations into US exports of various ham and pork products. See Anne Fitzgerald, “Mexico Goes Whole Hog for US Pork,” The Des Moines Register, Sep- tember 19, 2004; and “Mexico Lifts Duties on Live Swine, Keeps AD Investigation on US Pork,” Inside US Trade, May 23, 2003.

AGRICULTURE

289

Institute for International Economics | www.iie.com

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