MCRP 3-02E Terrorism
The Individual's Guide for Understanding and Surviving
2 What value is the terrorist going to get out of the act? How important are you and what benefit 3 can the terrorist get out of targeting you?
4 How much terror are they going to generate by perpetrating an act against you? Terrorists 5 believe in "kill 10 and frighten 10,000." Can they get a ransom for you? If you are military, they 6 will not get a ransom, and they know it. U.S. policy is "We will not negotiate, we will not pay 7 a ransom, and we will not release prisoners."
8 Terrorists might take you as a hostage to demand release of their comrades who are imprisoned. 9 The U.S. will not release prisoners and encourages its allies not to, but freedom for comrades 10 remains a potential goal for the terrorists.
11 If everything else fails, they might want a safe escort out of the country. A 1975 Rand study 12 shows that terrorists have historically had an 83 percent chance of obtaining safe passage after 13 other demands were dropped. The same Rand study shows that when hostages are taken there is 14 a:
Sixty-nine percent probability that some or all of the terrorist's demands, beyond just safe passage, will be met.
Seventy-nine percent probability that all of the terrorists will escape punishment or death.
One hundred percent probability of gaining publicity for the terrorists' cause.
19 Know the Threat for Your Area
20 As soon as you find out you're going to be assigned into a high-risk area, start learning about that 21 area's terrorist activity. Are the terrorist groups well-organized, well-equipped, and, well-led, or 22 are they just a bunch of ragtag, fly-by-night groups? The more sophisticated a group, the graver 23 the threat. Use any source available. See your S-2. Go to the library. Read newspapers, 24 magazines, and books. Talk to people from that area and people who have been there. Contact 25 any DOD school that conducts training on combating terrorism. Once in-country, get more 26 information from the U.S. Embassy, U.S. military group, and the host country.
27 Determine how the terrorist groups are organized. The typical terrorist organization is a cellular 28 structure which makes it very difficult to combat or infiltrate. Knowing the history of the 29 operating groups will help explain their dynamics and identify probable targets.
30 Determine local popular support. Some groups have it, some don't. It is not wise to go into 31 certain areas (for whatever reason) if terrorist groups are popular. In the beginning, the Red 32 Army Faction (RAF) enjoyed a certain degree of popular support because their acts supported the 33 working class against the exploitations of industrial giants. However, they started losing support 34 as they became more isolated and their acts became more criminal. Today they are seen by the