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proposition that social policy thresholds will cycle under pressure from competing constituencies. This simulation uses the system dynamics technique for modeling non-linear systems with feedback.

judgment analysis results change in a repeat study of the same practitioners following the community- wide intervention this fall.

In the fourth project, Tom Stewart and I are collecting data related to the question of whether vicarious functioning is an example of implicit learning, and whether explicit reportable knowledge aids probability learning.

Brunswik-Symmetry

Werner W. Wittmann University of Mannheim wittmann@tnt.psychologie.uni-mannheim.de

Physician Diagnosis and Management of Respiratory Tract Infection

Bob Wigton University of Nebraska Medical Center College of Medicine E-mail: wigton@unmc.edu

and

We are using data recorded from physicians patients in clinical studies of acute respiratory

tract infection

process.

Do

to study elements of the judgement the clinical symptoms and findings

We continued to capitalize in our research a lot on the symmetry principles of the lens model. We have applied these principles to different research domains with great success. A chapter titled: "Brunswik-symmetry a key concept for successful psychological research just appeared as a book chapter (unfortunately in German only). The reference is: Wittmann,W.W. (2002): Brunswik- Symmetrie, ein Schlüsselkonzept für erfolgreiche psychologische Forschung. In Myrtek, M. (Hrsg.) Die Person im biologischen und sozialen Kontext. Goettingen: Hogrefe. The chapter is full of

differ depending on whether you ask the clinician or the patient? (Yes) Do the clinician-recorded and the

examples psychotherapy

from

personality research and

research, analyzing

patient-recorded

symptoms

differ

in

their

ability

to

predict the correct cause their cue weights similar

of the illness? when forming

(Yes.) Are judgments

performance in complex business games additional to new methodological and conceptual issues and ideas. For those fluent in English only,

about the possible diseases responsible illness? (No.) Is there wide variation

for

the

in

how

physicians diagnose We've begun to look

respiratory illness? (Of course). at the judgment modeling of the

differential diagnosis and I these results at the meeting.

will

present

some

of

In a related study, we have done a judgment analysis study of the factors leading to prescription of antibiotics in a group of 95 practitioners in Denver who are taking part in a controlled trial of an intervention to reduce antibiotic prescribing. Once again, there is great variation in the strategies and the practitioners appear to be poorly calibrated with regard to antibiotic prescription (in comparison with guidelines from the CDC). We will see if the

can go to our homepage at: http://www.psychologie.uni- mannheim.de/psycho2/psycho2.en.php3?page=publi/papers.en .htm&cat=publi to find four different presentations

from international conferences in PowerPoint to get a flavor of the beauty of Brunswik symmetry and how to capitalize on it in terms of prediction and explanation. How Brunswikian concepts are integrated into a larger framework concerning evaluation research and program evaluation methodology titled:"A multi-aspect approach to the evaluation of treatment quality in psychosomatic treatment" can be seen at: stuttgart.de/kongress/program2.html. This presentation is also coupled with my oral presentation. http://www.psyres-

Newsletter 2002 page 26 of 28

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